Penn State vs. Illinois Men's Basketball Preview: The Anatomy of a Losing Streak

The first time these two teams met, it was monumental for each team. For Penn State, because it might have been the bottoming out in terms of quality of play; and for Illinois, because that was the last time they won a game. At the conclusion of that contest, Illinois sat at 13-2 and ranked 23rd in the country. Now? They're 13-10 and last in the Big Ten. What happened? The short answer: All kinds of things.

First of all, this team is a nightmare on offense right now. In the non-conference, Illinois went 11-2, including a ranked win over Missouri, and averaged 71 PPG. In conference, however, the Illini have dropped that down 9 points to 62 PPG. Along the same lines, Illinois' team FG% is last in the Big Ten. If you then factor in the non-conference games, the percentage jumps up 4%, illustrating just how bad the conference games have gone. Quite frankly, this is an entirely different team offensively from the non-conference to now, and no player is more emblematic of that than leading scorer Rayvonte Rice.

Rice, a transfer from Drake University, is one of the 5 leading scorers in the Big Ten, at 16.9 PPG. He's shooting 43.7% from the floor, which seems pretty standard for him if you look at his career. However, since the conference season started, his shooting percentage is a mere 33%. In the non-conference, his shooting percentage was an amazing 53%. With as many shots as Rice takes, it's not hard to imagine how Illinois' PPG has dropped by 9 points.

On the other hand, one thing that Illinois does well is hold onto the ball, especially for a losing team. The Illini have the second lowest number of turnovers in the Big Ten during conference season. So, this would lead you to believe that they likely also have a respectable Assist/Turnover ratio. But, this is far from the truth. In fact, Illinois averages only 8.1 APG, good for last place in the Big Ten (1 spot worse than Penn State at a measly 8.8 APG). This is likely a result of the teams' ineffectiveness to get the ball in the basket, as well as an offense that is not moving the ball as well as it needs to.

All things considered, Illinois' defense is pretty good, but not good enough to overcome their offensive shortcomings. Also concerning for Illini fans is that their most recent recruiting class, one that was believed to be quite good, is not getting a lot of minutes. They have two freshman receiving double digit minutes per game in Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill, but they are only getting 13.1 and 10.8 MPG, respectively. So, this team is struggling mightily, with a majority of juniors and seniors getting minutes. That is never a great sign.

All of this points to a Nittany Lion win on Sunday. However, years as a PSU Basketball fan makes me worry that Illinois is due, and that Sunday will be the day they snap out of it. Penn State needs to find a way to rebound from Thursday's beatdown at the hands of MSU, and all things considered, I think they do.

Penn State 69 - 64 Illinois. Also...

For old time's sake, ya know?