That Blue and White team that trotted into Camp Randell Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin this Saturday looked like a totally different team from the rest of the season. Here are some of the most important, and maybe even interesting, stats and notes I could come up with after this game.
Christian Hackenberg
Man, that was fun to watch! #HotTakes
Penn State fans have to be encouraged with what they saw out of youth on Saturday, especially on defense. While there may have been bigger performances on the offensive side of the ball out of Adam Breneman, Geno Lewis, and the one kid playing QB, the defensive performances may have been more significant. Penn State's defense has struggled for most of the year, especially at safety, and at times at linebacker. True Freshman LB Brandon Bell had his second straight week wreaking havoc in the opponents backfield, and this time he received the start as well. RS freshman and former WR Malik Golden also saw serious action in the second half, and made a huge play and impressive read to knock down a screen pass attempt by Joel Stave in the 3rd quarter. With Penn State in desperate need of safeties for next year that have the athleticism to keep receivers in front of them, Golden is an X factor. Saturday indicated that his knowledge of the position seems to be catching up with his athleticism, and Penn State's options at Safety could be at least a little less cloudy for next year.
Geno Lewis everybody. With Big Ten Receiver of the year Allen Robinson likely headed to the NFL, Penn State was looking for someone to step up, and Geno Lewis seemed to offer himself up as a potential option. The RS Freshman, who actually played QB in high school, is still learning to run good routes, but the athleticism, the hands, and the talent are clearly there. Call me crazy, but by the time he's done here I think we will be looking at another WR that has made his presence known in the PSU record books. Whether or not he's ready to be the #1 guy next year, we will see, but Saturday certainly gives PSU fans plenty to be optimistic about.
Geno Lewis
Saturday was for all intents and purposes day 1 of year 2 of the Hackenberg era. QB's have statistically made their biggest jump between their Freshman and Sophomore seasons, and Hackenberg gave fans a little taste of the future. When Peyton Manning was a freshman at Tennessee, he threw 11 TD's and 6 Int's. Matt Stafford threw 7 TD's and 13 Int's. Projected number one pick Teddy Bridgewater threw 14 TD's and 12 Int's. Hackenberg threw 20 TD's and 10 Int's this year. When you looked at these guys Sophomore seasons, you see that Manning improved to 22 TD's and 4 INT's, Stafford to 19 TD's and 10 INT's (oddly similar to Hackenberg's FRESHMAN numbers) and Bridgewater to 27 TD's and 8 INT's. Moral of the story: The B1G needs to look out. Also...
RELEASE THE HACKENNN!! (A guy yelled this about 25 times behind me at a football game. I can't decide if it is funny or annoying)
Here's the doozy of this blog. Through 3 Big Ten home games, the Badgers had only given up 19 points. On the season at home? Only 36. This Saturday? 31 points! This was by far the most success anyone had against Wisconsin's defense at home, and the only two comparable performances came on the road when they gave up 40 points to the world-beating OSU offense and 32 points to Illinois in a game that was over at the end of the first quarter.
Long story short: Saturday was pretty awesome, and I want August be here tomorrow. I'm ready for next season already.
1. Tristan Thompson
Thompson as just one of the many draft picks that the Cleveland Cavaliers have made that left people scratching their heads, but there's a chance this one may actually be panning out. In reality, Thompson should have been getting plenty of credit last year, with averages of basically 11 points and 9 rebounds per game, and with a PER around 16. This year, his numbers are up slightly to 13 points and 10 rebounds. Yet, more importantly, he has drastically improved his free throw shooting, up nearly 15% from 60% last year. This allows him to be on the floor at the end of close games. Considering the debate that began when the Cavaliers took SF/PF Anthony Bennett #1 overall about who would get the most minutes at the 4 spot, this FT shooting improvement has been incredibly important. Bennett has been, to put it nicely, a mess, and Thompson's improvement has allowed the Cavaliers to work on developing Bennett while not sacrificing effectiveness at the end of the games by keeping him on the floor. While the Cavaliers draft selections most definitely deserve the ire that they have drawn, Thompson has made the case for his name to be left out of those discussions.
2. Erick Spoelstra/Michael Beasley
This is a unique situation. Beasley is supremely talented, has shown flashes of his ability, and has also been one of the biggest boneheads in the NBA (See: The "Off Court Issues" section of Beasley's Wikipedia... it's lengthy.). Yet, Eric Spoelstra has handled this situation to perfection, or at least it would seem so up to this point. Beasley has an amazing amount of talent on the offensive end, but he tends to get careless and at times not play very good team basketball. So, Spoelstra kept Beasley on the bench for the first few games, essentially allowing him to watch what his teammates are capable of. He forced Beasley to build some trust. Then, in the last few games he has released Beasley in small, concentrated doses: several minutes at a time, never totaling more than 23 total minutes. So far, the results have been staggering. In 3 of his last 4 games, Beasley has put together some impressive stat lines, including a Milwaukee game in which he played 20 minutes, going 8-14 from the floor and scoring 19 points, a Charlotte Bobcats game in which he played 23 minutes, scoring 15 points on 7-14 shooting, and a Celtics game in which he only played 8 minutes, but managed to go 5-7 from the floor for 10 points. His efficiency, not something Beasley is typically known for, has been staggering, with a PER sitting just above 25 right now. On the season, Beasley has now scored 56 points in 71 minutes on 25-42 shooting. Whether or not, Spoelstra continues to use him in his current capacity or begins to give him more minutes remains to be seen. Either way, Beasley is an enigma, enormously talented and completely incapable of getting out of his own way. If Spoelstra can continue to handle this in the right way, Beasley could give the Heat another dimension for teams to account for and could ultimately be the difference that Miami needs to return the championship trophy to South Beach.
3. Monta Ellis
To those people who love advanced analytics, Monta Ellis is a nightmare. Throughout his NBA career he has been a volume scorer. Blessed with incredible ability to do everything on the offensive end, but also hampered by very questionable decision-making, Ellis has always been a confusing, if not troubling, NBA player. Grantland's NBA Preview series featuring Bill Simmons and Jalen Rose displayed a Monta Ellis shot chart showing that Ellis did not shoot above average from anywhere on the floor this past year (See for yourself, it's around the 6:30 mark). This year, however, he is shooting the highest eFG% (a metric that weights 3 pointers more than 2 points) of his entire career. He is averaging 22.1 PPG, and he is not doing it to the detriment of Dirk Nowitzki or his team. He is taking 6.6 free throws per game, and shooting them at a 82% clip, both of which are career highs. That translates to a lot of free points. He is also dishing out just shy of 6 assists/game and his team is winning. Ellis has found a home that may be the perfect situation for him. He has always had amazing pure talent, but his decision making has gotten in the way. If Ellis can keep his current playing style up, we may be watching him on All-Star weekend for the first time in his career. 4. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
This is an interesting one. No, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has not been as prominent on the offensive end as the first three guys on this list, but he is showing marked improvement over last year. The former #2 overall pick came into the league amidst expectations that were, quite frankly, way too high. He was still a raw prospect with a very quirky jump shot, but he was also a high level athlete who could finish at the rim, defend almost anybody, and bring extreme intensity to the floor day in and day out. Clearly, it was unreasonable to expect him to be a scorer in his first few years in the league as that part of his game needed serious development. Yet, low and behold, about two weeks we saw Tony Kornheiser labeling MKG a "bust." At the time, he was about 2 weeks into his SECOND NBA season. This season, his raw numbers don't seem too much higher. Yet, a closer look reveals some very encouraging trends. First of all, his eFG% has jumped nearly 8%. Such a jump is key to making opposing teams respect his jump shot, and thus open up more driving lanes so that he can use his explosive athletic ability (Watch this, you won't regret it). Yet, the most important component to Kidd-Gilchrist's game pertain to his defense. His length, athleticism, and energy are creating some real problems for opposing players. For example, look at Carmelo Anthony. In the Bobcats' third game of the season, they played Anthony's Knicks, and MKG drew the Carmelo matchup. The above video displays several possessions within that game, showing MKG harassing Melo in the post, fighting over ball screens, contesting shots at the rim and generally making Carmelo work really hard. By the end of that game, Carmelo was 10-28, with most of those makes coming during time frames in which MKG was on the bench. The Bobcats won that game. Simply put, Kidd-Gilchrist dramatically affected the game from the defensive end of the court, which is a skill that will always carry weight in the NBA. Yet, couple that with his improving offensive efficiency, and MKG deserves a little more love than pundits like Tony Kornheiser are giving him.
My Game of the Week (i.e. Penn State Game Preview): Penn State vs. Purdue. Penn State gets a much needed chance to build some confidence against a team that has only been in the red zone 3 times in Big Ten Play... 3 times! In 5 games! After a beginning of the season that saw Penn State's defense play basically average, and it's offense play surprisingly well considering it was being run by a true freshman, Big Ten play has been rough on the Nittany Lions. A matchup with Purdue seems to be coming at the right time, after an extremely lackluster effort versus Minnesota that had the Golder Gophers so excited they broke the Governor's Victory Bell. This week will be the last time Penn State is favored to win this season.
Side note: let me rant for a second. Penn State fans seem to be losing sight of a few things in the disappointment of this season. Penn State is a team that is 64% underclassmen, and as much as we want to say that the sanctions had no affect, they did. Penn State has players getting significant (or starting) time that would still typically be waiting in the wings and developing their skills. Unfortunately, we don't have that luxury right now. So, before we right off players like Nyeem Wartman and Trevor Williams, it is important to remember that one of them is a RS Fr. (Wartman) that was so much more athletic than everyone he was playing in high school he had to learn almost nothing about pass coverage schemes, and the other was just switched to CB this offseason and is still a true sophomore. Don't forget, these players are going through the same learning process that many great PSU defenders went through, but instead of doing it behind the closed doors of Holuba Hall, they're doing it in front of 100,000 fans and on National TV. Also, remember that both Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman received sparse playing time as Freshman at Penn State, and they are both Pro Bowlers now. Furthermore, recent NFL draft pick Nate Stupar only began starting games in his Junior and Senior seasons, never starting every game in a given season. Long story short: Don't write a lot of these guys off just yet, they have talent but they're still learning, and they still should provide us fans with hope for future defenses.
Nyeem Wartman
Real Game of the Week: Georgia vs. Auburn, even though the Big Ten fan in me wants to make it Michigan State vs. a resurgent Nebraska team. Georgia might be the most talented 6-3 team of all time, with a big-time QB in Aaron Murray, and an absolutely potent rushing attack that is finally healthy. If I had told you 3 months ago that Todd Gurley would only have 600 rushing yards through 9 games this year you would have said I was stupid, but that is the effect injuries has had on this team. Georgia is also hoping to get leading WR Chris Conley back for the game this Saturday, so this team may finally be approaching the talent level that had everyone labeling them a National Championship contender in the preseason.
Auburn on the other hand has somehow pulled off one of the most amazing turnarounds of this season, considering they didn't win a single SEC game last year and they are now the #7 ranked team in the country. They are also the only team left that could potentially unseat Alabama from the SEC and National championship games. Auburn is led by a player who may be having the best season of any running back in college football: Tre Mason. Mason has run for over 1,000 yards and 16 TD's this season. How about his QB Nick Marshall? He has over 700 yards and 7 TD's himself. Ultimately, this game may come down to whether or not Georgia can stop Auburn's rushing attack, and nobody has really succeeded at that all year. If you're looking for a game full of high-level running backs, this is the place to be. If you're looking for a game full of history, these team's are 56-56-8 all time. If you're looking for both, this game is heaven.
Non-BCS Game of the week: Well this game already happened in Ball State vs. Northern Illinois, but I just got the idea to write this column. Unfortunately, that means that the game in this slot is Texas State @ Arkansas State. Texas State needs this game to even stay in the hunt in the Sun Belt, while Arkansas State is sitting one game back of conference leader Louisiana-Lafayette. Arkansas State already lost their matchup with the Ragin' Cajuns, so to keep pace they will likely need to win out and hope La-Lafayette trips up. Who's the player to watch? Arkansas State DT Ryan Carrethers has the most tackles in a single game by any D-Lineman in the country this year, with 16. He is currently projected to go in the middle of the draft, so you will likely see him in an NFL uniform some day.
Also, he's massive...
Ryan Carrethers
Upset Alert: USC vs. Stanford. Since the firing Lane Kiffin, each USC game has looked better and better. It almost feels like a country liberated from it's dictator and finally allowed to move forward, except most dictators don't get called off the team bus and fired on the spot. Stanford is coming off an emotional win over Oregon (again), and you if you follow traditional wisdom that makes them ripe for a letdown. USC QB Cody Kessler has turned into a steady player, with 6 TD's and 2 INT's since the firing. USC does some damage with it's talented stable of RB's, but Silas Redd is out for the game on Saturday. Oddly enough, USC's defense has been a big part of why they've been successful these last few games, and it will be intriguing to see if they can keep that up against the best opponent they have faced this season. On the other hand, Stanford will undoubtedly have the best defense USC has faced, and after dominating Oregon for 3 quarters, it is very hard to imagine any offense having wild success against this Shayne Skov led defense. If USC can move the ball even a little bit, expect a close game.
Game to avoid... If you want to see a score that isn't a "blowout" by the end of the first quarter: Syracuse vs. Florida State. In hindsight, you could potentially have used this distinction for every Florida State game this season. Florida State has about 456x more talent than Syracuse. It's to the point it almost doesn't even feel like a fair fight. To those people saying the Jameis Winston "news" from this week may have an effect... I'm going to avoid that topic altogether for now. Not a lot of facts and a lot of speculation, which usually leads to a lot more bad than good.
Last Season: Overall, last year was not a terribly memorable season in East Lansing... and I'm only partially kidding. Sweet 16's and contending for B1G championships seems to have become par for the course under Tom Izzo. Gary Harris, Keith Appling, and Adriean Payne formed the team's core, and they are all back. Each of them earned All Big-Ten honors last season, and Harris and Payne are both Big Ten player of the year candidates.
Departures: Derrick Nix
Returning Players: Adriean Payne, Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Travis Trice, Branden Dawson, Matt Costello Newcomers: Gavin Schilling, Alvin Ellis What to Expect: A lot of destruction. Tom Izzo compared this team to the 2000 National Championship team, and that should be scary for everyone. The team may have the best core in college basketball with Appling, Harris, and Payne. Harris is believed by many to be poised to take another step, which is especially frightening because he was Big Ten Freshman of the year last year. Branden Dawson will be back after starting every game but one last year (that one game coming in an interesting situation at PSU) and will provide the energy, hustle, and strength that leads to great defense and lots of rebounds. The 5th spot will come down to Matt Costello and freshman Gavin Schilling, who has been getting positive reviews from people in East Lansing. Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine will bring high quality depth, just as they did last year. Storyline to Watch: Gary Harris is projected to be a lottery pick, but he could climb into the top 10 this year. He is quick, smart, a great shooter, and overall an extremely efficient player. He has the ability to thrust his name into National Player of the Year conversation in my opinion, but with such a talented team he may not need to do so. Final Prediction: 27-3 (15-3)
If Izzo thinks this could be a National Championship team, I agree. They're as talented as anybody and they have experience. Not to mention the chemistry that comes with returning almost all of your major players from last year. We could see the first national championship in East Lansing since that legendary 2000 team. With Izzo as their coach and so much returning talent, this is almost a boring team to preview because their success seems so inevitable and downright obvious.
Last Season: Michigan made a memorable run all the way to the NCAA Championship game as one of the most talented #4 seeds of all time. The team was led by National Player of the Year candidate Trey Burke, and 3-time all Big-Ten player Tim Hardaway Jr. Both were drafted in the first round of the NBA draft, with Burke going in the lottery (As a PSU fan, this makes me so sad). Mitch McGary finally made some progress in staying out of foul trouble near the end of last year, and he was what seemed to propel Michigan over the hump during their tournament run.
Departures: Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. Returning Players: Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, Nik Stauskas, Spike Albrecht, Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, Caris LeVert Newcomers: Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin, Mark Donnal What to Expect: Has there ever been a team that loses two first round draft picks, and then has two projected lottery picks, and maybe the best 3 point shooter in college basketball (Nik Stauskas: Must watch) on their team the next year. Probably not, and that is what Michigan has this year. Glenn Robinson III is a ridiculously talented wing who plays well above the rim. He likely could have gone in the lottery last year, but he decided to return, and most Mock Drafts have him in the top 10 for next year. Mitch McGary was extremely hyped last year, and during the regular season he looked great when he wasn't on the bench in foul trouble. As I mentioned, once he figured that out, Michigan took their game to the next level. His combination of energy, size, and athleticism is very rare and will have many teams vying to draft him in June. Besides Stauskas, McGary, and Robinson III, Caris Levert and Spike Albrecht or Derrick Walton should round out the starting lineup. Levert is inexplicably nicknamed "Baby Durant," and Albrecht endeared himself to us with his twitter pursuit of Kate Upton (see below). Whether or not Albrecht is able to adequately replace some of Burke's production remains to be seen, with highly sought after recruit Derrick Walton vying for the starting spot as well. Michigan also adds top 30 recruit Zak Irvin to provide depth at the forward spot.
Storyline to Watch: Has McGary actually put his foul trouble behind him.? It would seem so, but if he struggles with that again, Michigan could lose a few games you wouldn't expect them to. Final Prediction: 25-5 (14-4)
Tons of talent and a super trio of sophomores. This team will help Ann Arbor forget about Al Borges' offense, at least I hope so... for their sake.
Last Season: Last year's Ohio State team was one of several that fell victim to the surprising (shocking!) run of the Wichita State Shockers. OSU made it the whole way to the Elite 8 on the heels of DeShaun Thomas and Aaron Craft, before needing a vicious comeback to give themselves a chance against Wichita State. Ultimately, the run fell short, and their season ended without a Final 4 appearance. Laquinton Ross had a remarkable run in the tournament, and will look to take over a lot of the scoring reigns this year as DeShaun Thomas has moved on to the professional ranks.
Departures: Evan Ravenel, DeShaun Thomas Returning Players: Aaron Craft, Shannon Scott, Lenzelle Smith Jr., LaQuinton Ross, Amir Williams, Sam Thompson Newcomers: Mark Loving, Kam Williams What to Expect: This team is one of the most experienced in the country, with only 3 underclassmen on their roster. Aaron Craft will continue to be one of the most decorated players to never average more than 10 PPG and 5 RPG. He is undoubtedly an outstanding defender, likely the best in the Big Ten the last few years, but there are people who believe that he will struggle with the new hand-check rules (including Keith Appling, who cracked up upon hearing that Craft said it would have no effect). As I mentioned earlier, LaQuinton Ross is expected to make a big jump and fill some of the void left by DeShaun Thomas, but players such as Shannon Scott, Lenzelle Smith Jr., and Sam Thompson (remember this) should help fill the void. Scott, another All Big Ten Defensive player, ensures minimal drop off on the defensive end when Craft is not on the floor, and if they're both on the floor on the same time... it won't be fun for the opposing team. As you would expect with a Thad Matta team, Ohio State brought in two more Top 100 recruits in Mark Loving and Kam Williams, but there may not be a lot of time available for them this season. Storyline to Watch: Amir Williams was a borderline top 50 recruit in 2011 who was coming in on the heels of the Greg Oden, Byron Mullens, Kosta Koufos sequence of years. He's massive, he's athletic, and he moves fairly well, yet all this has translated to limited minutes and limited production. If he can continue to improve and eventually live up to his athletic potential, Ohio State will have another weapon that teams need to worry about, and that could ultimately propel them into the National Championship discussion. Final Prediction: 24-6 (13-5)
You'd think losing a first team All Big-Ten player like DeShaun Thomas would have a bigger effect, but this team has talent from top to bottom. Whether or not they can hop Michigan or Michigan state remains to be seen.
Last Season: Traveon Jackson broke my heart in the last regular season game of the year when he hit a walk-off bomb to beat Penn State at the end of the season. I should grow to expect this stuff against Wisconsin but it hurts no less. Last years team was thought to be in for some difficulties when starting PG Josh Gasser went down for the season, but as Bo Ryan's teams tend to do, they played smart basketball all the way to a second round NCAA tournament appearance. Jared Berggeren (Wisconsin's obligatory white big guy who can make 3's) was 2nd on the team in scoring and lead the B1G in blocks for his senior season. Mike Bruesewitz also suited up for the last time in a Wisconsin uniform after what felt like a 8 year career. I'm not sure if I should be sad to see the fro go, or happy I no longer have to watch him play basketball.
Departures: Jared Berggeren, Ryan Evans, Mike Bruesewitz! Returning Players: Sam Dekker, Frank Kaminsky, Traveon Jackson, Josh Gasser, Ben Brust, Duje Dukan, Evan Anderson, Zack Bohannon Newcomers: Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes, Vitto Brown, Riley Dearring, Jordan Hill, Aaron Moesch What to Expect: The same thing you expect year in and year out. Wisconsin may have the best winning percentage of any team when they score less than 60 points. They will wind down the shot clock on almost every possession (inevitably hitting a 3), playing solid defense, and not turning the ball over. With Josh Gasser back this year, he will likely slide to the 2 or 3 spot to allow Traveon Jackson to play the PG spot. Ben Brust will start in the backcourt, and be another deadly 3 point shooter. The frontcourt lost 3 players from last year, and the only returning player to receive major minutes last year is Frank Kaminsky (yes, he's a center who can hit 3's). Sam Dekker, a supremely talented do-it-all forward, will likely play at the 4, which is a little undersized compared to Wisconsin's usual lineups. The teams bench is pretty short, but some players to watch are Zack Bohannon, Evan Anderson, Duje Dukan. If this team is at all like Wisconsin teams of the past, one or more of these guys will step up and become serviceable. Bronson Koenig is Wisconsin's biggest incoming recruit.
Sam Dekker
Storyline to Watch: The frontcourt. It is very thin and has essentially no prior experience outside of Kaminsky. Seeing that this is Wisconsin, it seems to be almost a guarantee that some big guy that they recruited from somewhere in the middle of the country will start knocking down 3's and playing great defense. The fact is, they need someone to step up, as this position is not a position of strength for Wisconsin for the first time in a while Final Prediction: 22-8 (11-7)
Wisconsin will be Wisconsin. Bo Ryan's teams have been too consistent to expect anything less.
