Summary: Talk about a whirlwind, roller coaster ride, up and down affair. This Penn State team is much more exciting than PSU fans are used to. Ed DeChellis came to Penn State promising an up tempo style of basketball, and well... (http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=310700275) To be fair, no one wins more games in the 30s than Ed DeChellis. It just don't happen! But, under Pat Chambers, PSU finally has an up-tempo team. This years' Nittany Lions are 4th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency, and 2nd in PPG at 81.2. With 5 players averaging double figures (if you count John Johnson) this team can simply fill it up. The team has 4 guards that can light up the scoreboard on any night in Tim Frazier, D.J. Newbill, Allen Roberts, and Johnson, while the forwards have all had their moments as well. Ross Travis is averaging 11.8 PPG and 8.4 RPG, Brandon Taylor is averaging double figures and Donovon Jack has dropped 18+ on two separate occasions. Yet, this team has found a way to lose 4 games despite leading in the second half of every game on the schedule. The worst offenders are a blown 20 point lead to Princeton in the "Return to Rec", and a 10 point loss to Bucknell (that may have been more about a historic shooting performance by the Bison, though). Simply put, this team has looked great at times, and also dropped a few duds late in games. With the additions of John Johnson and 7'0" C Jordan Dickerson going forward, this team is deeper and more talented than any team during my lifetime, but they have quite a few ills that still need to be cured.
MVP: Tim Frazier. The senior guard is still not at his best, as it is clear that at times there is still some residual rust from his Achilles injury. Yet, that should make opponents more worried as Frazier is currently putting up 18.2 PPG and 7.5 APG. However, he seems to make a few more careless passes than usual, and Pat Chambers has been quick to remind everyone that Frazier still has a little more work to do. However, his effect can be seen on the rest of the team, with Newbill, Travis, and Taylor all shooting significantly better than last season as a result of the open shots they get from Frazier's penetration and vision. Simply put, Frazier is worth multiple wins with how good he is. How many? That is yet to be seen.
Most Disappointing Stat: Oy, the Nittany Lions are last, dead freakin' last, in the B1G in defensive efficiency. Sure, teams like Bucknell deserve some credit for just shooting great, but they also got countless open shots. The recent flux in Penn State's roster will undoubtedly create some additional defensive chemistry issues going forward, but all season long PSU's rotations have been a touch slow, and have often resulted in wide open looks for the other team. Fortunately for PSU fans, defensive adjustments are usually easier to make mid-season than offensive adjustments, so PSU's D still may have a fighting chance. Undoubtedly though, it has a long way to go. Key Going Forward: This one is easy: C Jordan Dickerson. The day before Penn State's last non-conference game vs. Mt. St. Mary's, Dickerson was granted a legislative waiver on his waiting period as a transfer, and was granted immediate eligibility to play. Dickerson is massive, shockingly athletic (he can really, really jump), and adds some extremely important frontcourt depth. Quite frankly, Dickerson is also very raw. You won't see the Nittany Lions dumping the ball into the paint and letting him go to work, because he does not have a lot of reliable post moves. Yet, Penn State scores plenty already, and all they need is a player who is going to be able to bang with players like Adriean Payne, A.J. Hammons, and Mitch McGary, and also be able to grab rebounds. Dickerson seems to fit that role perfectly. He has the athleticism to alter shots, and his presence earlier in the season would have solved a lot of issues Penn State had with foul trouble. While John Johnson (who also saw his first action against Mt. St. Mary's and managed to score 20 points on 8-11 shooting) is clearly the better play right now, Jordan Dickerson seems to fill a more desperate need.
Revised Win Prediction: I'm going to say 9, largely because I really want this team to be on the bubble before heading to the B1G Tournament. In reality, this number could be anywhere from 6 to 11. The team has depth and talent, especially at guard, and they will be competitive with every team they play. This much has been proven already, but whether or not the team can learn to close games (the nightmares of Princeton haven't stopped yet) will likely prove to be the deciding factor on how many games this team will win. Color me cautiously optimistic. Regardless, this team will be unbelievably fun to watch, and Big Macs shall be had for all.
That Blue and White team that trotted into Camp Randell Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin this Saturday looked like a totally different team from the rest of the season. Here are some of the most important, and maybe even interesting, stats and notes I could come up with after this game.
Christian Hackenberg
Man, that was fun to watch! #HotTakes
Penn State fans have to be encouraged with what they saw out of youth on Saturday, especially on defense. While there may have been bigger performances on the offensive side of the ball out of Adam Breneman, Geno Lewis, and the one kid playing QB, the defensive performances may have been more significant. Penn State's defense has struggled for most of the year, especially at safety, and at times at linebacker. True Freshman LB Brandon Bell had his second straight week wreaking havoc in the opponents backfield, and this time he received the start as well. RS freshman and former WR Malik Golden also saw serious action in the second half, and made a huge play and impressive read to knock down a screen pass attempt by Joel Stave in the 3rd quarter. With Penn State in desperate need of safeties for next year that have the athleticism to keep receivers in front of them, Golden is an X factor. Saturday indicated that his knowledge of the position seems to be catching up with his athleticism, and Penn State's options at Safety could be at least a little less cloudy for next year.
Geno Lewis everybody. With Big Ten Receiver of the year Allen Robinson likely headed to the NFL, Penn State was looking for someone to step up, and Geno Lewis seemed to offer himself up as a potential option. The RS Freshman, who actually played QB in high school, is still learning to run good routes, but the athleticism, the hands, and the talent are clearly there. Call me crazy, but by the time he's done here I think we will be looking at another WR that has made his presence known in the PSU record books. Whether or not he's ready to be the #1 guy next year, we will see, but Saturday certainly gives PSU fans plenty to be optimistic about.
Geno Lewis
Saturday was for all intents and purposes day 1 of year 2 of the Hackenberg era. QB's have statistically made their biggest jump between their Freshman and Sophomore seasons, and Hackenberg gave fans a little taste of the future. When Peyton Manning was a freshman at Tennessee, he threw 11 TD's and 6 Int's. Matt Stafford threw 7 TD's and 13 Int's. Projected number one pick Teddy Bridgewater threw 14 TD's and 12 Int's. Hackenberg threw 20 TD's and 10 Int's this year. When you looked at these guys Sophomore seasons, you see that Manning improved to 22 TD's and 4 INT's, Stafford to 19 TD's and 10 INT's (oddly similar to Hackenberg's FRESHMAN numbers) and Bridgewater to 27 TD's and 8 INT's. Moral of the story: The B1G needs to look out. Also...
RELEASE THE HACKENNN!! (A guy yelled this about 25 times behind me at a football game. I can't decide if it is funny or annoying)
Here's the doozy of this blog. Through 3 Big Ten home games, the Badgers had only given up 19 points. On the season at home? Only 36. This Saturday? 31 points! This was by far the most success anyone had against Wisconsin's defense at home, and the only two comparable performances came on the road when they gave up 40 points to the world-beating OSU offense and 32 points to Illinois in a game that was over at the end of the first quarter.
Long story short: Saturday was pretty awesome, and I want August be here tomorrow. I'm ready for next season already.
1. Tristan Thompson
Thompson as just one of the many draft picks that the Cleveland Cavaliers have made that left people scratching their heads, but there's a chance this one may actually be panning out. In reality, Thompson should have been getting plenty of credit last year, with averages of basically 11 points and 9 rebounds per game, and with a PER around 16. This year, his numbers are up slightly to 13 points and 10 rebounds. Yet, more importantly, he has drastically improved his free throw shooting, up nearly 15% from 60% last year. This allows him to be on the floor at the end of close games. Considering the debate that began when the Cavaliers took SF/PF Anthony Bennett #1 overall about who would get the most minutes at the 4 spot, this FT shooting improvement has been incredibly important. Bennett has been, to put it nicely, a mess, and Thompson's improvement has allowed the Cavaliers to work on developing Bennett while not sacrificing effectiveness at the end of the games by keeping him on the floor. While the Cavaliers draft selections most definitely deserve the ire that they have drawn, Thompson has made the case for his name to be left out of those discussions.
2. Erick Spoelstra/Michael Beasley
This is a unique situation. Beasley is supremely talented, has shown flashes of his ability, and has also been one of the biggest boneheads in the NBA (See: The "Off Court Issues" section of Beasley's Wikipedia... it's lengthy.). Yet, Eric Spoelstra has handled this situation to perfection, or at least it would seem so up to this point. Beasley has an amazing amount of talent on the offensive end, but he tends to get careless and at times not play very good team basketball. So, Spoelstra kept Beasley on the bench for the first few games, essentially allowing him to watch what his teammates are capable of. He forced Beasley to build some trust. Then, in the last few games he has released Beasley in small, concentrated doses: several minutes at a time, never totaling more than 23 total minutes. So far, the results have been staggering. In 3 of his last 4 games, Beasley has put together some impressive stat lines, including a Milwaukee game in which he played 20 minutes, going 8-14 from the floor and scoring 19 points, a Charlotte Bobcats game in which he played 23 minutes, scoring 15 points on 7-14 shooting, and a Celtics game in which he only played 8 minutes, but managed to go 5-7 from the floor for 10 points. His efficiency, not something Beasley is typically known for, has been staggering, with a PER sitting just above 25 right now. On the season, Beasley has now scored 56 points in 71 minutes on 25-42 shooting. Whether or not, Spoelstra continues to use him in his current capacity or begins to give him more minutes remains to be seen. Either way, Beasley is an enigma, enormously talented and completely incapable of getting out of his own way. If Spoelstra can continue to handle this in the right way, Beasley could give the Heat another dimension for teams to account for and could ultimately be the difference that Miami needs to return the championship trophy to South Beach.
3. Monta Ellis
To those people who love advanced analytics, Monta Ellis is a nightmare. Throughout his NBA career he has been a volume scorer. Blessed with incredible ability to do everything on the offensive end, but also hampered by very questionable decision-making, Ellis has always been a confusing, if not troubling, NBA player. Grantland's NBA Preview series featuring Bill Simmons and Jalen Rose displayed a Monta Ellis shot chart showing that Ellis did not shoot above average from anywhere on the floor this past year (See for yourself, it's around the 6:30 mark). This year, however, he is shooting the highest eFG% (a metric that weights 3 pointers more than 2 points) of his entire career. He is averaging 22.1 PPG, and he is not doing it to the detriment of Dirk Nowitzki or his team. He is taking 6.6 free throws per game, and shooting them at a 82% clip, both of which are career highs. That translates to a lot of free points. He is also dishing out just shy of 6 assists/game and his team is winning. Ellis has found a home that may be the perfect situation for him. He has always had amazing pure talent, but his decision making has gotten in the way. If Ellis can keep his current playing style up, we may be watching him on All-Star weekend for the first time in his career. 4. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
This is an interesting one. No, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has not been as prominent on the offensive end as the first three guys on this list, but he is showing marked improvement over last year. The former #2 overall pick came into the league amidst expectations that were, quite frankly, way too high. He was still a raw prospect with a very quirky jump shot, but he was also a high level athlete who could finish at the rim, defend almost anybody, and bring extreme intensity to the floor day in and day out. Clearly, it was unreasonable to expect him to be a scorer in his first few years in the league as that part of his game needed serious development. Yet, low and behold, about two weeks we saw Tony Kornheiser labeling MKG a "bust." At the time, he was about 2 weeks into his SECOND NBA season. This season, his raw numbers don't seem too much higher. Yet, a closer look reveals some very encouraging trends. First of all, his eFG% has jumped nearly 8%. Such a jump is key to making opposing teams respect his jump shot, and thus open up more driving lanes so that he can use his explosive athletic ability (Watch this, you won't regret it). Yet, the most important component to Kidd-Gilchrist's game pertain to his defense. His length, athleticism, and energy are creating some real problems for opposing players. For example, look at Carmelo Anthony. In the Bobcats' third game of the season, they played Anthony's Knicks, and MKG drew the Carmelo matchup. The above video displays several possessions within that game, showing MKG harassing Melo in the post, fighting over ball screens, contesting shots at the rim and generally making Carmelo work really hard. By the end of that game, Carmelo was 10-28, with most of those makes coming during time frames in which MKG was on the bench. The Bobcats won that game. Simply put, Kidd-Gilchrist dramatically affected the game from the defensive end of the court, which is a skill that will always carry weight in the NBA. Yet, couple that with his improving offensive efficiency, and MKG deserves a little more love than pundits like Tony Kornheiser are giving him.
My Game of the Week (i.e. Penn State Game Preview): Penn State vs. Purdue. Penn State gets a much needed chance to build some confidence against a team that has only been in the red zone 3 times in Big Ten Play... 3 times! In 5 games! After a beginning of the season that saw Penn State's defense play basically average, and it's offense play surprisingly well considering it was being run by a true freshman, Big Ten play has been rough on the Nittany Lions. A matchup with Purdue seems to be coming at the right time, after an extremely lackluster effort versus Minnesota that had the Golder Gophers so excited they broke the Governor's Victory Bell. This week will be the last time Penn State is favored to win this season.
Side note: let me rant for a second. Penn State fans seem to be losing sight of a few things in the disappointment of this season. Penn State is a team that is 64% underclassmen, and as much as we want to say that the sanctions had no affect, they did. Penn State has players getting significant (or starting) time that would still typically be waiting in the wings and developing their skills. Unfortunately, we don't have that luxury right now. So, before we right off players like Nyeem Wartman and Trevor Williams, it is important to remember that one of them is a RS Fr. (Wartman) that was so much more athletic than everyone he was playing in high school he had to learn almost nothing about pass coverage schemes, and the other was just switched to CB this offseason and is still a true sophomore. Don't forget, these players are going through the same learning process that many great PSU defenders went through, but instead of doing it behind the closed doors of Holuba Hall, they're doing it in front of 100,000 fans and on National TV. Also, remember that both Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman received sparse playing time as Freshman at Penn State, and they are both Pro Bowlers now. Furthermore, recent NFL draft pick Nate Stupar only began starting games in his Junior and Senior seasons, never starting every game in a given season. Long story short: Don't write a lot of these guys off just yet, they have talent but they're still learning, and they still should provide us fans with hope for future defenses.
Nyeem Wartman
Real Game of the Week: Georgia vs. Auburn, even though the Big Ten fan in me wants to make it Michigan State vs. a resurgent Nebraska team. Georgia might be the most talented 6-3 team of all time, with a big-time QB in Aaron Murray, and an absolutely potent rushing attack that is finally healthy. If I had told you 3 months ago that Todd Gurley would only have 600 rushing yards through 9 games this year you would have said I was stupid, but that is the effect injuries has had on this team. Georgia is also hoping to get leading WR Chris Conley back for the game this Saturday, so this team may finally be approaching the talent level that had everyone labeling them a National Championship contender in the preseason.
Auburn on the other hand has somehow pulled off one of the most amazing turnarounds of this season, considering they didn't win a single SEC game last year and they are now the #7 ranked team in the country. They are also the only team left that could potentially unseat Alabama from the SEC and National championship games. Auburn is led by a player who may be having the best season of any running back in college football: Tre Mason. Mason has run for over 1,000 yards and 16 TD's this season. How about his QB Nick Marshall? He has over 700 yards and 7 TD's himself. Ultimately, this game may come down to whether or not Georgia can stop Auburn's rushing attack, and nobody has really succeeded at that all year. If you're looking for a game full of high-level running backs, this is the place to be. If you're looking for a game full of history, these team's are 56-56-8 all time. If you're looking for both, this game is heaven.
Non-BCS Game of the week: Well this game already happened in Ball State vs. Northern Illinois, but I just got the idea to write this column. Unfortunately, that means that the game in this slot is Texas State @ Arkansas State. Texas State needs this game to even stay in the hunt in the Sun Belt, while Arkansas State is sitting one game back of conference leader Louisiana-Lafayette. Arkansas State already lost their matchup with the Ragin' Cajuns, so to keep pace they will likely need to win out and hope La-Lafayette trips up. Who's the player to watch? Arkansas State DT Ryan Carrethers has the most tackles in a single game by any D-Lineman in the country this year, with 16. He is currently projected to go in the middle of the draft, so you will likely see him in an NFL uniform some day.
Also, he's massive...
Ryan Carrethers
Upset Alert: USC vs. Stanford. Since the firing Lane Kiffin, each USC game has looked better and better. It almost feels like a country liberated from it's dictator and finally allowed to move forward, except most dictators don't get called off the team bus and fired on the spot. Stanford is coming off an emotional win over Oregon (again), and you if you follow traditional wisdom that makes them ripe for a letdown. USC QB Cody Kessler has turned into a steady player, with 6 TD's and 2 INT's since the firing. USC does some damage with it's talented stable of RB's, but Silas Redd is out for the game on Saturday. Oddly enough, USC's defense has been a big part of why they've been successful these last few games, and it will be intriguing to see if they can keep that up against the best opponent they have faced this season. On the other hand, Stanford will undoubtedly have the best defense USC has faced, and after dominating Oregon for 3 quarters, it is very hard to imagine any offense having wild success against this Shayne Skov led defense. If USC can move the ball even a little bit, expect a close game.
Game to avoid... If you want to see a score that isn't a "blowout" by the end of the first quarter: Syracuse vs. Florida State. In hindsight, you could potentially have used this distinction for every Florida State game this season. Florida State has about 456x more talent than Syracuse. It's to the point it almost doesn't even feel like a fair fight. To those people saying the Jameis Winston "news" from this week may have an effect... I'm going to avoid that topic altogether for now. Not a lot of facts and a lot of speculation, which usually leads to a lot more bad than good.
Last Season: Overall, last year was not a terribly memorable season in East Lansing... and I'm only partially kidding. Sweet 16's and contending for B1G championships seems to have become par for the course under Tom Izzo. Gary Harris, Keith Appling, and Adriean Payne formed the team's core, and they are all back. Each of them earned All Big-Ten honors last season, and Harris and Payne are both Big Ten player of the year candidates.
Departures: Derrick Nix
Returning Players: Adriean Payne, Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Travis Trice, Branden Dawson, Matt Costello Newcomers: Gavin Schilling, Alvin Ellis What to Expect: A lot of destruction. Tom Izzo compared this team to the 2000 National Championship team, and that should be scary for everyone. The team may have the best core in college basketball with Appling, Harris, and Payne. Harris is believed by many to be poised to take another step, which is especially frightening because he was Big Ten Freshman of the year last year. Branden Dawson will be back after starting every game but one last year (that one game coming in an interesting situation at PSU) and will provide the energy, hustle, and strength that leads to great defense and lots of rebounds. The 5th spot will come down to Matt Costello and freshman Gavin Schilling, who has been getting positive reviews from people in East Lansing. Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine will bring high quality depth, just as they did last year. Storyline to Watch: Gary Harris is projected to be a lottery pick, but he could climb into the top 10 this year. He is quick, smart, a great shooter, and overall an extremely efficient player. He has the ability to thrust his name into National Player of the Year conversation in my opinion, but with such a talented team he may not need to do so. Final Prediction: 27-3 (15-3)
If Izzo thinks this could be a National Championship team, I agree. They're as talented as anybody and they have experience. Not to mention the chemistry that comes with returning almost all of your major players from last year. We could see the first national championship in East Lansing since that legendary 2000 team. With Izzo as their coach and so much returning talent, this is almost a boring team to preview because their success seems so inevitable and downright obvious.
Last Season: Michigan made a memorable run all the way to the NCAA Championship game as one of the most talented #4 seeds of all time. The team was led by National Player of the Year candidate Trey Burke, and 3-time all Big-Ten player Tim Hardaway Jr. Both were drafted in the first round of the NBA draft, with Burke going in the lottery (As a PSU fan, this makes me so sad). Mitch McGary finally made some progress in staying out of foul trouble near the end of last year, and he was what seemed to propel Michigan over the hump during their tournament run.
Departures: Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. Returning Players: Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, Nik Stauskas, Spike Albrecht, Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, Caris LeVert Newcomers: Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin, Mark Donnal What to Expect: Has there ever been a team that loses two first round draft picks, and then has two projected lottery picks, and maybe the best 3 point shooter in college basketball (Nik Stauskas: Must watch) on their team the next year. Probably not, and that is what Michigan has this year. Glenn Robinson III is a ridiculously talented wing who plays well above the rim. He likely could have gone in the lottery last year, but he decided to return, and most Mock Drafts have him in the top 10 for next year. Mitch McGary was extremely hyped last year, and during the regular season he looked great when he wasn't on the bench in foul trouble. As I mentioned, once he figured that out, Michigan took their game to the next level. His combination of energy, size, and athleticism is very rare and will have many teams vying to draft him in June. Besides Stauskas, McGary, and Robinson III, Caris Levert and Spike Albrecht or Derrick Walton should round out the starting lineup. Levert is inexplicably nicknamed "Baby Durant," and Albrecht endeared himself to us with his twitter pursuit of Kate Upton (see below). Whether or not Albrecht is able to adequately replace some of Burke's production remains to be seen, with highly sought after recruit Derrick Walton vying for the starting spot as well. Michigan also adds top 30 recruit Zak Irvin to provide depth at the forward spot.
Storyline to Watch: Has McGary actually put his foul trouble behind him.? It would seem so, but if he struggles with that again, Michigan could lose a few games you wouldn't expect them to. Final Prediction: 25-5 (14-4)
Tons of talent and a super trio of sophomores. This team will help Ann Arbor forget about Al Borges' offense, at least I hope so... for their sake.
Last Season: Last year's Ohio State team was one of several that fell victim to the surprising (shocking!) run of the Wichita State Shockers. OSU made it the whole way to the Elite 8 on the heels of DeShaun Thomas and Aaron Craft, before needing a vicious comeback to give themselves a chance against Wichita State. Ultimately, the run fell short, and their season ended without a Final 4 appearance. Laquinton Ross had a remarkable run in the tournament, and will look to take over a lot of the scoring reigns this year as DeShaun Thomas has moved on to the professional ranks.
Departures: Evan Ravenel, DeShaun Thomas Returning Players: Aaron Craft, Shannon Scott, Lenzelle Smith Jr., LaQuinton Ross, Amir Williams, Sam Thompson Newcomers: Mark Loving, Kam Williams What to Expect: This team is one of the most experienced in the country, with only 3 underclassmen on their roster. Aaron Craft will continue to be one of the most decorated players to never average more than 10 PPG and 5 RPG. He is undoubtedly an outstanding defender, likely the best in the Big Ten the last few years, but there are people who believe that he will struggle with the new hand-check rules (including Keith Appling, who cracked up upon hearing that Craft said it would have no effect). As I mentioned earlier, LaQuinton Ross is expected to make a big jump and fill some of the void left by DeShaun Thomas, but players such as Shannon Scott, Lenzelle Smith Jr., and Sam Thompson (remember this) should help fill the void. Scott, another All Big Ten Defensive player, ensures minimal drop off on the defensive end when Craft is not on the floor, and if they're both on the floor on the same time... it won't be fun for the opposing team. As you would expect with a Thad Matta team, Ohio State brought in two more Top 100 recruits in Mark Loving and Kam Williams, but there may not be a lot of time available for them this season. Storyline to Watch: Amir Williams was a borderline top 50 recruit in 2011 who was coming in on the heels of the Greg Oden, Byron Mullens, Kosta Koufos sequence of years. He's massive, he's athletic, and he moves fairly well, yet all this has translated to limited minutes and limited production. If he can continue to improve and eventually live up to his athletic potential, Ohio State will have another weapon that teams need to worry about, and that could ultimately propel them into the National Championship discussion. Final Prediction: 24-6 (13-5)
You'd think losing a first team All Big-Ten player like DeShaun Thomas would have a bigger effect, but this team has talent from top to bottom. Whether or not they can hop Michigan or Michigan state remains to be seen.
Last Season: Traveon Jackson broke my heart in the last regular season game of the year when he hit a walk-off bomb to beat Penn State at the end of the season. I should grow to expect this stuff against Wisconsin but it hurts no less. Last years team was thought to be in for some difficulties when starting PG Josh Gasser went down for the season, but as Bo Ryan's teams tend to do, they played smart basketball all the way to a second round NCAA tournament appearance. Jared Berggeren (Wisconsin's obligatory white big guy who can make 3's) was 2nd on the team in scoring and lead the B1G in blocks for his senior season. Mike Bruesewitz also suited up for the last time in a Wisconsin uniform after what felt like a 8 year career. I'm not sure if I should be sad to see the fro go, or happy I no longer have to watch him play basketball.
Departures: Jared Berggeren, Ryan Evans, Mike Bruesewitz! Returning Players: Sam Dekker, Frank Kaminsky, Traveon Jackson, Josh Gasser, Ben Brust, Duje Dukan, Evan Anderson, Zack Bohannon Newcomers: Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes, Vitto Brown, Riley Dearring, Jordan Hill, Aaron Moesch What to Expect: The same thing you expect year in and year out. Wisconsin may have the best winning percentage of any team when they score less than 60 points. They will wind down the shot clock on almost every possession (inevitably hitting a 3), playing solid defense, and not turning the ball over. With Josh Gasser back this year, he will likely slide to the 2 or 3 spot to allow Traveon Jackson to play the PG spot. Ben Brust will start in the backcourt, and be another deadly 3 point shooter. The frontcourt lost 3 players from last year, and the only returning player to receive major minutes last year is Frank Kaminsky (yes, he's a center who can hit 3's). Sam Dekker, a supremely talented do-it-all forward, will likely play at the 4, which is a little undersized compared to Wisconsin's usual lineups. The teams bench is pretty short, but some players to watch are Zack Bohannon, Evan Anderson, Duje Dukan. If this team is at all like Wisconsin teams of the past, one or more of these guys will step up and become serviceable. Bronson Koenig is Wisconsin's biggest incoming recruit.
Sam Dekker
Storyline to Watch: The frontcourt. It is very thin and has essentially no prior experience outside of Kaminsky. Seeing that this is Wisconsin, it seems to be almost a guarantee that some big guy that they recruited from somewhere in the middle of the country will start knocking down 3's and playing great defense. The fact is, they need someone to step up, as this position is not a position of strength for Wisconsin for the first time in a while Final Prediction: 22-8 (11-7)
Wisconsin will be Wisconsin. Bo Ryan's teams have been too consistent to expect anything less.
Last Season: The Hawkeyes made a surprise run at the bubble last season, ultimately finishing their season in the NIT tournament. This constituted a serious improvement over their last couple seasons. Devyn Marble did a bit of everything, including leading the team in scoring, and Aaron White is severely under appreciated after putting together one of the more complete seasons in the B1G last season. White was one of only 4 players in the Big Ten to average more than 12.8 points and 6.2 rebounds (along with Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo, and DeShaun Thomas). Both of them return to Iowa City this season. Departures: Eric May Returning Players: Pretty much everyone, and I don't want to type them all out. Newcomers: Peter Jok What to Expect: There are a few things that you can reasonably expect to see this season: some hilarious faces from Fran Mccaffrey (see below), an insane amount of depth, and quite possibly an NCAA tournament berth. The Hawkeyes return 9 of their 10 leading scorers from last year, with the only loss being glue guy Eric May. Marble and White will lead the way, while Melsahn Basabe and Adam Woodbury should retain their starting positions from last year. Basabe is an athletic, well-rounded forward that can block shots, and Woodbury is a 7'1" behemoth that has received very positive reviews from early practices this year. It is important to note that Iowa gets the added benefit of a Europe trip this offseason, and the 10 additional practices that go along with that. These 10 practices could help McCaffrey sort out his depth, with players such as Josh Oglesby and Zach McCabe back. Both are capable 3 point shooters, although newcomer Peter Jok could steal minutes from Oglesby on the wing.
Storyline to Watch: Gabriel Olesani. Olesani is a 6'10" player who has all the athletic tools you need. If his improvement is as significant as it has been rumored in some places, Iowa will have another dimension for opposing teams to worry about. His height is legitimate, and he can do this. Terrifying. Final Prediction: 22-7 (11-7)
This will be a fun season in Iowa City. Athleticism, depth, experience, and a wildly entertaining coach. Can't ask for much more.
Last Season: Last season was the season that Indiana fans had pinpointed as their potential national championship season. They made it to the Sweet 16, spent multiple weeks as the number one team in the nation, and they produced some of the most exciting basketball in the country. Ultimately, they fell a bit short of their National Championship goals, but the season could be looked at as a return to prominence for one of the nation's elite programs. At the same time, Tom Crean cemented himself as the most disliked coach in the Big Ten, and rightfully so. Guy is a classless jerk. Moving on.
Tom Crean
Departures: Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo, Jordan Hulls, Christian Watford, Remy Abell (Transfer), Maurice Creek (Transfer) Returning Players: Will Sheehey, Yogi Ferrell, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Jeremy Hollowell Newcomers: Noah Vonleh, Devin Davis, Luke Fischer, Collin Hartman, Stanford Robinson, Troy Williams What to Expect: Indiana lost a first team All-American (Victor Oladipo), a second team All-American (Cody Zeller), and their 3rd and 4th leading scorers (Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls). Oladipo and Zeller went in the top 5 picks in the draft. When you only look at that, you would think that this could be a rough year for the Hoosiers. However, the team has a lot of incoming talent. The two returning players that you can pencil in as starting are Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey. Ferrell had a good freshman year and will be one of the better players in the conference. Sheehey will be annoying, frustrating, and effective as always. The incomers to watch are Noah Vonleh, Troy Williams, Stanford Robinson, and Luke Fischer, all of which are top 100 recruits. Eric Gordon's brother, Evan Gordon, is a transfer from Arizona State who will provide instant help, likely off the bench. Vonleh is the biggest name of all the new players, and rightfully so. You'll see him wearing an NBA jersey on soon.
Storyline to Watch: Vonleh is the best incoming freshman in the Big Ten, and he is a candidate to be a 1-and-done. Right now, DraftExpress.com does not have him leaving this year, but rather after his sophomore year, and they currently have him slotted for the 9th overall pick. He's 6'8", 240 lbs. and can play the 3 spot. For what it is worth, this kid will be bigger than pretty much everyone in Penn State's starting lineup, and that has me worried. Final Prediction: 22-8 (11-7)
This team has boatloads of talent, and for as much as I hate Crean, he can make it gel. Another good season is coming in Bloomington, and with a lot of Freshman and Sophomores.
Last Season: Since that big three of JaJuan Johnson, E'Twaun Moore, and Robbie Hummel, Purdue has naturally experienced some growing pains. Last year saw players like Terone Johnson, Ronnie Johnson, and A.J. Hammons develop, but the Boilermakers ultimately finished below .500 at 16-18.
Departures: D.J. Byrd, Dru Anthrop, Sandi Marcius, Anthony Johnson (transfer), Jacob Lawson (transfer) Returning Players: Rapheal Davis, A.J. Hammons, Terone Johnson, Ronnie Johnson, Jay Simpson, Donnie Hale
Newcomers: Kendall Stephens, Bryson Scott, Basil Smotherman (Yes, that's a real name) What to Expect: I'm secretly terrified that Robbie Hummel will be granted another year of eligibility based on a technicality, but hey, this team may not need him. The only significant loss comes in the way of D.J. Byrd, who actually accounted for over half of Purdue's 3 pointers last season. Yet, the conference's second super-brother tandem of Terone and Ronnie Johnson return to anchor the backcourt. Top 100 freshmen Kendall Stephens and Bryson Scott, along with Junior Rapheal Davis, will add depth at each guard spot. The key to the season though, and the player who could make a leap big enough to be a top 5 player in the conference, is A.J. Hammons. He is massive (legit 7-footer), he blocks shots (2nd in B1G), and he has a fairly polished offensive game. Hammons is going to be very tough for everyone to deal with, especially for teams like Penn State that don't have any players over 6'9". This team has talent, more experience than they had last year, and a very good coach. Things are trending up in West Lafayette.
A.J. Hammons
Storyline to Watch: Does Purdue freshman Basil Smotherman have the greatest name in college basketball (you decide). On a more serious note, can Purdue replace D.J. Byrd's 3 point shooting? Last year, outside of Byrd, Purdue was a 28% 3-point shooting team. If they can't find some realistic outside threats, teams could theoretically collapse on Hammons and to some extent negate the advantage Purdue will have in him. I'm willing to bet that Hammons' presence is going to give their outside shooters a lot of open jumpers, and that they will connect at an acceptable rate. Final Prediction: 19-10 (9-9)
As long as this team shoots 3 pointers at an acceptable level and Hammons keeps improving as expected, this should be an NCAA tournament team, with the potential to have a better record than what I have listed above. Great coach, plenty of talent, and additional experience is a good formula for a successful season.
(Warning: This is Penn State and I haven't missed a game in nearly 5 years, I am a homer, and I will likely write WAY too much. That said, I know what I'm talking about, and you may learn something, so READ)
Last Season: This one isn't so pretty for Penn State fans to revisit. From the minute Tim Frazier went down early in the non-conference season, it was essentially a given that Penn State was going to be in for a rough stretch. Without a backup PG on the roster, Pat Chambers was forced to improvise. The Solution? Sophomore transfer D.J. Newbill played PG for the first time since... his year at Southern Miss? nah. AAU? Nope. High School? Wrong again. MIDDLE SCHOOL?! That's more like it. Nevertheless, he showed tremendous improvement throughout the season, and Junior Jermaine Marshall scored in bunches, but Penn State struggled to only 2 wins in conference. One of those two wins though... miraculously came versus the #4 overall Michigan Wolverines!
Departures: Jermaine Marshall (Transfer), Sasa Borovnjak, Nick Colella, Pat Ackerman (Transfer), Akosa Maduegbunam (Transfer), Jon Graham (Transfer)
Returning Players: Tim Frazier, DJ Newbill, Ross Travis, Donovon Jack, Brandon Taylor
Newcomers: John Johnson (Transfer), Allen Roberts (Transfer), Jordan Dickerson (Transfer*), Graham Woodward, Geno Thorpe, Julian Moore, Payton Banks
What to Expect: Corny catchphrases (#ATTITUDE and #RELENTLESS). This team excels with motivating one word catch phrases. But actually, this is not an easy question to answer. In the last preview, I said there may not be a team with more turnover than than Illinois in the entire country, and I may have just refuted my own statement. There is a lot going on here, so why are (some) PSU fans so optimistic? Two words: Tim. Frazier. Frazier is, in my opinion, one of the 5 best players in this conference, and when you have a player that is as quick as Frazier and as smart of a passer as Frazier, everything else becomes easier for the team. Additionally, Newbill gets to slide back to his natural position. While the departure of Jermaine Marshall does hurt, the additions of John Johnson, a transfer from University of Pittsburgh who shot 38% from 3 as a freshman, and Allen Roberts, a grad transfer who was Miami (Ohio)'s leading scorer last year, provide Penn State with one of the best backcourts in the B1G. Yet, the frontcourt of Penn State is thin on depth, and slightly undersized. Ross Travis will start at the 3 spot, but he is one of the leading returning rebounders in the conference. Brandon Taylor saw major minutes at the 4, where he will start this year, although he is undersized for the position. Donovon Jack will start at the 5, and he is also slightly undersized. These 3 players essentially comprise PSU's frontcourt, as freshman Julian Moore likely isn't ready to go yet. One thing that stand out about this frontcourt is that all of these guys can shoot the 3, especially Taylor and Jack. So, if these guys can pull opposing big man away from the hoop, there might be open driving lanes for Frazier and Newbill all day. Additionally, with positive reports about freshman guards Graham Woodward and Geno Thorpe coming out, expect to see PSU run a lot of 3 and 4 guard sets that attempt to take advantage of the team's quickness.
#ATTITUDE
Storyline to Watch: Pat Chambers finally has the type of team he wants: Fast, athletic, versatile, and heavy on Philly players (Insert Chambers quote about "Philly toughness:"). With almost no holdovers from the DeChellis era left, this should be the year that we see real progress in the program.
Final Prediction: 17-13 (8-10)
Frazier will be one of the best players in the conference, and if Penn State's small versatile lineup can avoid major rebounding problems and take advantage of their relative quickness, this should be a bubble season.
Last Season: John Groce arrived from Ohio University last year and brought with him some of the most entertaining facial expressions in college basketball. He also inherited an experienced team that started out the season on a 12-0 run, before going 8-10 during the Big Ten season. The Illini were lead by a pair of All Big Ten guards in Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, but both have been lost to graduation. Ultimately, the Illini's season came to an end in the second round of the NCAA tournament on a, shall we say, questionable call?
Brandon Paul
Departures: Tyler Griffey, Sam McLaurin, Brandon Paul, DJ Richardson, Ibby Djimde (Transfer), Mike Henery (Transfer), Devin Langford (Transfer), Mike Shaw (Transfer)
Returning Players: Joseph Bertrand, Nnene Egwu, Tracy Abrams Newcomers: Kendrick Nunn, Malcolm Hill, Austin Colbert, Jaylon Tate, Maverick Morgan, Rayvonte Rice (Transfer), John Ekey (Transfer), Ahmad Starks (maybe, Transfer) What to expect: Find me a team in the country with more turnover than Illinois, and you'll likely come up empty handed. On the chance that you do find a team, they also likely aren't as well equipped to handle it as the Illini are. The development of Tracy Abrams and Nnene Egwu will be very important, as those two, along with Joseph Bertrand, are the only returning players who received major minutes last year. Yet, the Illini's lineup will contain several other contributors who have played college basketball. Rayvonte Rice, a transfer from Drake, could prove to be the Illini's best player this year, as he averaged 16.8 PPG in his last season of college basketball. Jon Ekey is a grad transfer from Illinois State, who will provide some minutes in the frontcourt. The freshman class has received a lot of hype, and players such as Kendruck Nunn, Malcolm Hill, and Austin Colbert were all top 150 recruits that should contribute. Nunn is the big one to watch, as the 4-star recruit hails from Simeon in Chicago (you may have heard of his high school teammate, Hint: First name... Jabari). Illinois has long needed to make inroads in the city of Chicago, and for whatever reason has struggled to do so. This class showed progress in that regard, with fellow freshman Jaylon Tate also hailing from Simeon (Dear God... that team must have killed everybody). Storyline to watch: Is it a legit storyline if I say John Groce's facial expressions?
Final Prediction: 17-14 (7-11)
Lots of young talent, and I have a feeling they will be dangerous at the end of year. I think that there are too many pieces playing together for the first time to expect an NCAA tournament bid. Illi-N-I-T (Boooooo) this year.
Last Season: A 15-1 start saw the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers peak at 8 in the national rankings, and a 6-13 finish saw them miss the NCAA tournament. This collapse lead to the end of the Tubby Smith era in Minnesota (neutral observer: I feel bad for Tubby. He's 511-226 and he's been fired from his last two jobs) and the beginning of the Pitino era. Minnesota ended up playing in the NIT tournament, and winning one game before falling to Florida. I suppose Tubby's teams did have a tendency to underachieve and/or fall apart late, but he had 5 20-win seasons and 3 NCAA tournament berths (not exactly chump change). Pitino will hope to build on that success. Departures: Trevor Mbakwe, Rodney Williams, Julian Welch, Andre Igram Returning Players: Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins, Joe Coleman, Maverick Ahanmisi, Elliott Eliason Newcomers: Daquein Mcneil, Malik Smith, Deandre Mathieu What to Expect: Well, Tubby didn't exactly leave Pitino the easiest job. Minnesota will have one of the best backcourts in league (and one of the most confusing to keep straight) with twin brothers Andre and Austin Hollins starting. The brothers were the team's leading scorers last year, and figure to be this year as well. Guard Malik smith followed Pitino to Minny from FIU and will add depth, while JUCO guard Deandre Mathieu will help as well. The frontcourt saw Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams depart and leave a lot of inexperience in the frontcourt. The trio of Maurice Walker, Elliott Eliason, and Oto Osenieks will attempt to fill the gaping hole there.
Trevor Mbakwe
Storyline to watch: This one is obvious... the coaching change. Pitino brings a name that has pedigree and a boatload of fresh energy, but there's more than that winning. Pitino is intriguing because he has the aforementioned qualities, but is still a relative unknown in the minds of many, as he has only been coaching for one year. His first season won't be easy, but if the team shows improvement throughout the schedule, the excitement will likely remain high in Minneapolis. Final Prediction: 15-14 (6-12)
I think Richard Pitino will be a very good coach, and for now I have no reason to dislike him as much as his Dad.
Last Season: Just like Penn State, Northwestern had its best player get hurt last year, and it got uglier from there. When Drew Crawford went down, players like Jer'shon Cobb and Dave Sobolewski were forced to step up their games, and they both did in fact show substantial improvement (side note: I'm putting Crawford on Peyton Siva watch: I swear he's been at NW for 9 years). Last year again ended without a postseason berth, and NW is still searching for their first ever invitation to the Big Dance. As a result, Bill Carmody and his gimmicky system are gone. Duke assistant Chris Collins is in.
Departures: Alex Marcotullio (I swear this guy never missed a 3... but actually), Jared Swopshire, Reggie Hearn Returning Players: Drew Crawford, Jer'shon Cobb, Dave Sobolewski, Alex Olah, Tre Demps, Kale Abrahamson, Mike Turner Newcomers: Nate Taphorn What to expect: The fact that Bill Carmody is the one coach who Ed DeChellis consistently beat tells me that this change is a good thing. Collins has some momentum rolling in Evanston, but the wins are not going to come just yet. While Crawford, Cobb, and Sobolewski will be an effective, high IQ trio, there's not a lot of help. Sophomore Alex Olah is a seven-footer who has shown some promise, so he will be a staple in the front court (I wish Luka Mirkovic was still roaming the paint for Northwestern), and a variety of other sophomores, such as Kale Abrahamson, Mike Turner, and Tre Demps could round out the Wildcats's rotation.
Drew Crawford
Storyline to watch: Maybe the most important part of this season for NW is maintaining their established recruiting momentum. Northwestern currently has a commitment from top 75 recruit Vic Law, and he has openly stated that he would not have chosen NW if Carmody was still there. So, clearly Collins has things moving in the right direction, and if he can recruit at a high level, the Kevin Coble injury that may have cost NW a tourney bid will stop haunting the team's fans. Final Prediction: 14-17 (5-13)
New Coach! Things will get better in Evanston soon. Chris Collins makes me believe that. Carmody, ehh.. not so much.
Last Season: Nebraska's second season in the Big Ten was an improvement over the first, but it wasn't exactly a rousing success. The Cornhuskers finished at 15-18 (5-13), with two of those wins coming against the cellar-dwelling Penn State Nittany Lions. Senior Dylan Talley lead the team in scoring, Ray Gallegos put together some good games, and Brandon Ubel was a solid frountcourt option. The Cornhuskers were able to beat Purdue in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, but a loss to Ohio State brought their season to an end.
Departures: Dylan Talley, Brandon Ubel, Andre Almeida
Returning: David Rivers, Benny Parker, Terran Pettaway (transfer), Trevor Menke, Jordan Tyrance, Mike Petlz, Sergej Vucetic, Leslee Smith, Shavon Shields, Walter Pitchford (transfer) Newcomers: Deverell Biggs (Juco), Nathan Hawkins, Nick Fuller, Tai Webster
Leading Returning scorer Ray Gallegos
What to expect: I'd be remiss to start this section off without mentioning Nebraska's new home, Pinnacle Bank Arena. If you haven't seen a tour of this arena and their new practice facility, go check it out, it's insane. Yet, with the opening of their new arena, Nebraska has a lot of youth. Their leading returning scorer is Ray Gallegos (12 ppg), who found a way to lead the conference in 3 pt. attempts last year... all the while only shooting them at a 30% clip. Two new guys to keep an eye on are Tai Webster and David Pettaway. Pettaway is a transfer who started 11 games as a freshman at Texas Tech, and Webster is about as hyped a freshman as we have seen at Nebraska in recent years (meaning he's top 150). And even better... he's from New Zealand! (that can't be too common in college basketball). Guys like Walter Pitchford (transfer from Florida) and Leslee Smith will man the post, but the backcort is undoubtedly the strength of the team.
Pinnacle Bank Arena
Storyline to watch: Penn State fans thought the building of the Bryce Jordan Center would solve a lot of the problems within the program (raise your hand if you think that proved to be true... *crickets). While the first year of its existence brought tons of excitement and droves of fans, as the aura wore off the fans stopped coming. Pinnacle Bank Arena is going to be one of the nicest home venues in college basketball, and it will be interesting to watch how it affects Nebraska's recruiting and their success in the future.
Bryce Jordan Center
Final Record: 11-17 (4-14)
A lot of young talent, but the key word is young. Fans will have to appreciate the brand new arena and embrace the opportunity to watch some of these guys develop their talent this season. The potential is there for Nebraska to make some big leaps in the coming years. I mean, how cool is this facility...
